OPEC sees global demand at 98.02 million bpd in the first quarter. It does not publish a forecast for future production, but internal data in October showed the group expected a surplus of about 2.5 million bpd in the first three months of 2022.
The U.S. Energy Information Agency (IEA) forecasts first quarter demand at about 99.83 million bpd, slightly below its forecast for supply of 99.9 million bpd.
The IEA expects Nigerian output to reach 1.46 million bpd in the first quarter, up 110,000 bpd on the previous quarter, and sees Angola’s output rising by 30,000 bpd to 1.17 million bpd.
OPEC and the EIA do not provide forecasts by country.
Assuming OPEC+ sticks to its plan to raise output by 400,000 bpd each month, the IEA is expecting Nigeria and Angola to continue miss targets by more than 400,000 bpd, based on Reuters calculations, a slight improvement on the October shortfall.
But if production from the two countries faces any disruption, the market could look tighter in the first quarter.
Reporting by Ahmad Ghaddar; Editing by Edmund Blair